As We Know It

The value of software is largely driven be two factors: productivity gained and distribution. These can be considered as depth and reach. Over the years, distribution has shifted from on site to box to over the wire. And each has led to incentive shifts as the benefits of software became democratized through these increasingly pervasive distribution channels

Software productivity gains have gone through similar step function changes. Where once we wrote machine level code, we now write more human readable languages. These abstractions have made writing software more accessible with each evolution. And as access grows so do the number of people writing software.

Over a longer horizon, capitalism is a growth machine. And while the shape of scale of software will change, its growth is enabled through the shift change in LLMs we experience today. Software isn’t ending. It’s only ending as we know it. As it’s done before.